US, Ukraine Near Deal on Mineral Rights

THE NEWS

The United States and Ukraine are finalizing a landmark deal granting U.S. companies access to Ukraine’s critical minerals—including rare earth elements essential for defense and green technologies—in exchange for military and financial aid.

Negotiations, which intensified after a public feud between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over terms, aim to strengthen bilateral ties while addressing Ukraine’s demand for explicit security guarantees.

TIMELINE

Fall 2024: Zelenskyy proposes “Victory Plan” to Trump

• During a meeting with Trump in New York., President Zelenskyy proposed a “Victory Plan,” which included the concept of Ukraine trading some of its critical mineral resources in exchange for security guarantees and support to end the war​.

February 12, 2025: U.S. Proposes Minerals Deal

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivers a draft agreement to Zelensky during a visit to Kyiv, demanding 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals (valued at ~$500 billion) as repayment for military aid. The draft lacks security guarantees and includes clauses placing disputes under New York courts. Zelensky refuses to sign.

February 14, 2025: Munich Security Conference

• Zelensky discusses the minerals deal with U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Talks are deemed “constructive” but yield no agreement.

February 19, 2025: Trump’s “Dictator” Remarks

• Trump calls Zelensky a “dictator without elections” and claims Ukraine “started the war” after Kyiv rejects the minerals proposal. Zelensky counters that Trump is in a Russian “disinformation space”.

February 20, 2025: Kellogg-Zelensky Meeting

• Kellogg arrives in Kyiv, meets Zelensky, and discusses battlefield updates, prisoner swaps, and revised minerals terms. The U.S. presents an updated draft removing contentious clauses (e.g., New York court jurisdiction). Zelensky calls the talks “productive” but stresses Ukraine needs “security guarantees that really work”.

February 21, 2025: Deal Nears Completion

• Trump and Zelensky signal optimism. “We’re signing an agreement soon,” Trump says, while Zelensky stresses “effective details” are key.

REACTIONS

President Zelensky: “This is an agreement that can strengthen our relations, and the key is to work out the details to ensure its effectiveness,” Zelenskyy said in a video address on Friday. “I look forward to the outcome — a just result.”

President Trump: "You know, I think they want it, and they feel good about it," Trump told reporters on Friday in the Oval Office after the swearing-in ceremony of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. "And it's significant. It's a big deal. But they want it, and it keeps us in that country. And they're very happy about it.

"We get our money back. They should have been signed long before we went in. They should have been signed by Biden. But Biden didn't know too much about what he was doing. The war should have never happened, No. 1. When it did happen, it could have been settled.

Trump’s National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, said, "Here’s the bottom line: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is going to sign that deal, and you will see that in the very short term."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News Wednesday Trump is creating a "win-win" partnership between the United States and Ukraine with the deal days after meeting with Zelenskyy in Kyiv.

WHAT NEXT

WSJ reported the deal could be signed as early as Saturday, though it did not report exact terms.