German Election Results: CDU Wins, AfD Second

THE NEWS

Germany’s federal election on February 23, 2025 delivered a decisive victory for the conservative CDU/CSU bloc led by Friedrich Merz, which emerged as the largest party with about 28.5% of the vote​.

In a historic outcome, the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surged into second place with roughly 20–21% support​ – the first time a right-wing party has placed second in postwar Germany​.

Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left SPD suffered heavy losses, falling to around 16.4%, its worst-ever federal result​.

The result signifies a major shift in the German political landscape, with high voter turnout (nearly 84%, the highest since reunification) underscoring the election’s significance​.

TIMELINE

Nov. 6, 2024 – Coalition Collapses

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, prompting the Free Democrats (FDP) to quit the governing “traffic light” coalition. The government’s collapse plunged Germany into political crisis and paved the way for an early election​.

• Scholz announced he would seek a parliamentary confidence vote to trigger new elections.

Dec. 16, 2024 – No-Confidence Vote

• The Bundestag (parliament) formally withdrew its confidence from Scholz’s government. Only 207 of 733 members voted in support, while 394 voted against – an outcome Scholz intentionally sought to enable fresh elections​.

• This unprecedented move in post-war German politics cleared the legal path for dissolving parliament and was necessitated by the coalition’s collapse over budget disputes​.

Dec. 27, 2024 – Snap Election Called

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag and officially set a snap federal election for February 23, 2025, about seven months earlier than the original term end​.

• In a brief address, Steinmeier urged all political actors to act responsibly during the interim. The stage was set for Germany’s first snap national election since 2005​.

Feb. 23, 2025 - Election Day

8:00 AM CET – Polls Open Nationwide

• Voting began across Germany on Sunday morning, with polling stations opening their doors. Citizens turned out in large numbers, foreshadowing what would be one of the highest participation rates in decades (almost 84% by day’s end)​. Polls were scheduled to remain open until 6:00 PM local time.​

6:00 PM CET – Polls Close and Initial Exit Polls

• Voting ended promptly at 18:00, and Germany’s public broadcasters released the first projections. Exit polls indicated a lead for the conservative CDU/CSU at roughly 29%, with the AfD in second (around 19–20%) and the SPD around 16%.

• These initial figures set the tone: Merz’s bloc was clearly ahead, while Scholz’s SPD was projected to sink to a historic low. The Greens were around 13%, and the liberal FDP and Sahra Wagenknecht’s new BSW alliance hovered near the 5% threshold​.

6:30 PM CET – Early Results Confirm Trends

• The first official vote count partial results (“Hochrechnung”) reinforced the projection. CDU/CSU held about 28–29%, maintaining a clear lead​.

• The AfD’s share grew to over 20%, confirming it as the runner-up, while the SPD remained near 16%​.

• At this stage, it became evident that the FDP and BSW might not reach the 5% threshold for parliamentary seats, as they lingered under that cutoff in preliminary counts. Broadcasters noted the record turnout, signaling the electorate’s engagement in this pivotal vote.

~7:30 PM CET – Scholz Concedes Defeat

• By early evening, Olaf Scholz publicly acknowledged the SPD’s poor showing. The incumbent chancellor conceded the election, calling the outcome “a bitter election result” for his party​.

• In a somber address, Scholz congratulated Merz on the conservatives’ victory and emphasized that the vote reflected dissatisfaction with the outgoing government. He also pointedly reminded the CDU/CSU of its pre-election promise not to cooperate with the AfD, urging Merz to uphold that commitment​.

~8:00 PM CET – Merz Declares Victory

• At CDU headquarters in Berlin, Friedrich Merz took the stage before cheering supporters to claim victory. “We have won this and we’ve won it clearly,” Merz proclaimed, noting that the conservative Union (CDU/CSU) had been entrusted by voters to lead the country​.

• He affirmed his intent to “form a government as quickly as possible” to address Germany’s problems, and promised to seek a coalition that “represents the entire republic”.

• Merz reiterated that the Union would not partner with the AfD, despite that party’s gains, as mainstream parties continued to enforce a firewall against the right-wing​.

8:30–9:00 PM CET – AfD Celebration and Reactions

• Over at the AfD’s election-night event in Berlin, supporters celebrated what was by far the best result in the party’s history. AfD lead candidate Alice Weidel hailed the 20% vote share as a “historic success” and told supporters that “our hand remains outstretched to form a government,” signaling the AfD’s readiness to govern​.

• Weidel warned it would be “tantamount to electoral fraud” if the first-placed CDU/CSU chooses to form a coalition with “left-wing parties” rather than acknowledge AfD’s strong mandate​.

• At the AfD gathering, one longtime member marveled at the outcome: “to see it at 20% is amazing… We’ll be kept out of coalition, but the conservatives are taking all of our positions,” he said, reflecting a mix of triumph and frustration among AfD’s base​.

10:00 PM CET – Smaller Parties and Shifts

• As vote counting continued into the night, it became clear that the Greens would end up around the low teens (roughly 11–12%), a loss from the previous election but not as steep as the SPD’s collapse​.

• The left-wing Die Linke party surpassed expectations with around 8–9%, re-entering the Bundestag with an improved result​.

• However, the Free Democrats (FDP) faced a debacle – dropping to roughly 4–5% and in danger of losing all their seats​.

• Likewise, the newly formed Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) hovered just under 5%. Election officials and media described the evening as a political earthquake, given the right-wing’s surge and the fragmentation of the vote.

12:00 AM CET – Preliminary Final Results Announced

• Around midnight, Germany’s Federal Returning Officer released the preliminary official results after all 299 voting districts were counted. The final tally confirmed the CDU/CSU as the winner with 28.6% of the second votes, the AfD firmly in second with 20.8%, and the SPD at 16.4%​.

• The Greens finished with 11.6%, and Die Linke with 8.8%, both securing seats in parliament​. The FDP ended at 4.3%, and Wagenknecht’s BSW at 4.97% – both just below the 5% threshold, meaning they failed to enter the Bundestag​.

• These results, pending official certification, set the stage for complex coalition negotiations. By the early hours of Monday, the magnitude of the political shift was clear: Germany’s post-war two-party dominance had given way to a more fragmented landscape with a strong hard-right presence in opposition.

REACTIONS

Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU): The Chancellor-designate struck a tone of victory and responsibility. “We have won this and we’ve won it clearly,” Merz declared to a jubilant crowd, while acknowledging the “dimension of the task” ahead​.

He vowed to respect the voters’ mandate and form a “stable government” as soon as possible to tackle Germany’s problems​. Merz also reiterated that the Union will not cooperate with the AfD, framing the win as a call for moderate governance.

Olaf Scholz (SPD): The outgoing chancellor accepted blame for the debacle. Scholz conceded defeat on election night, calling the result “bitter” for the Social Democrats​.

He congratulated Merz and the CDU/CSU on their victory, and in a pointed remark, urged them to “maintain [their] promise” of not negotiating with the AfD in forming a government​. Scholz took responsibility for the SPD’s historic loss, stating that the party would learn from this setback in opposition.

Alice Weidel (AfD): Buoyed by her party’s unprecedented success, the AfD’s co-leader celebrated a “historic night.” Weidel proclaimed the AfD to be “a mainstream party” now and said it is “prepared to assume government responsibility”​.

In her speech to supporters, she extended an open hand to the CDU/CSU for coalition talks and warned that excluding the AfD would betray many voters. “Our hand remains outstretched… If the first-placed conservatives choose to work with the left instead of us, then next time we’ll come first,” Weidel warned, signaling that the AfD intends to continue growing as the primary opposition​.

Her remark that it would be “electoral fraud” for Merz to ignore the AfD’s second-place finish underscored the party’s combative stance going forward​.

Robert Habeck (Greens): The Green Party’s lead candidate put a brave face on a middling result. Habeck argued that roughly 11–13% support for the Greens was “respectable” under the. He noted that while the Greens lost ground, they “haven’t collapsed” like their coalition partners SPD and FDP​.

Habeck framed the outcome as a sign that environmental issues still mattered to many voters, and indicated the Greens are open to discussions with the CDU/CSU if it helps implement pro-climate policies. However, he stressed that voters expect any new government to address both climate action and social cohesion, despite the shift to the right.

Christian Lindner (FDP): The leader of the Free Democrats appeared deflated as his party faced ejection from the Bundestag. Lindner conceded it was a “stinging defeat” for the classical-liberal FDP, which fell below 5%. In remarks to reporters, he accepted responsibility and said the party “must regroup” after losing more than half its voters​.

Lindner acknowledged that the electorate punished the FDP for the previous government’s performance, and he announced an extraordinary party congress to discuss the leadership and future direction (hinting at potential resignation). “It’s a difficult day for us liberals,” he said, “but we respect the voters’ decision.” (Source: press statements reported on ARD TV)

US President Donald Trump congratulated German conservatives on what he called “a GREAT DAY FOR GERMANY” on social media, reflecting support for the result from international right-wing circles​.

WHAT’S NEXT

Coalition Negotiations:

• With no party anywhere near an absolute majority, attention now turns to coalition building. Merz’s CDU/CSU has ruled out any cooperation with the second-place AfD​, which leaves a governing coalition likely to involve some combination of the traditional parties. The most straightforward option is a “Grand Coalition” between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, which together would command a slim majority of seats in the new Bundestag​.

• Both Merz and SPD leaders have signaled openness to this pairing as a way to ensure stability. Another possibility is a center-right alliance of the CDU/CSU with the Greens (often called a **“Black-Green” coalition), which would likely require a third partner to reach a majority given the numbers​. However, the only potential third partner, the FDP, failed to enter parliament – complicating any three-party formula.

• A three-way “Kenya” coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD-Greens) has also been floated to secure a comfortable majority, though that would unite three of the four largest parties and relegate AfD alone to opposition. In all scenarios, AfD will remain excluded from power, and Die Linke (Left Party) is also considered an unlikely partner for the conservatives. Coalition talks are expected to be arduous and protracted, as party leaders negotiate policy compromises and cabinet posts​.

Government Formation Process:

• Forming Germany’s next government could take several weeks or even months. In 2017, coalition negotiations took a record six months, and while this time the configurations are fewer, the ideological gulf between possible partners (e.g. CDU and Greens, or CDU and SPD after a bruising campaign) could prolong discussions.

• The parties will first hold exploratory talks in the coming days, then move into formal coalition negotiations once a tentative agreement is in sight. During this period, outgoing Chancellor Scholz and his cabinet will remain in a caretaker capacity. Germany’s Basic Law requires the newly elected Bundestag (parliament) to convene within 30 days of the vote, so the 21st Bundestag will meet by late March 2025 for the first time. In that inaugural session (presided over by the oldest member), the new MPs will be sworn in​.

• However, the election of a new Chancellor will only take place once a coalition deal is finalized. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is expected to nominate Friedrich Merz as chancellor-candidate once a governing coalition is ready. Merz would then face a confirmation vote in the Bundestag (requiring an absolute majority) to formally take office as Chancellor​.